Trump Waives Russia Oil Tariffs, Averts Trade Clash
Two days before a sweeping new sanctions law was set to trigger punishing tariffs, President Donald Trump stepped in and defused it. On Friday, October 16, Trump signed an executive order waiving the duties and most sanctions provisions of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act — a move that spared major Russian energy buyers, including India and China, from tariffs of up to 100 percent.
A Deadline Defused
The Graham Act, which Trump signed into law on September 18, would have required the president to impose steep tariffs by October 18 on the top five importers of Russian-origin crude oil and natural gas — China, India, Slovakia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan. The law also authorized tariffs of up to 500 percent on Russian goods and penalties for facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion.
Instead of letting the deadline detonate a trade war, Trump invoked the law’s national-interest waiver authority, certifying to Congress that the waiver was “in the national interests of the United States.” The order activated the law’s tariff provisions and then suspended nearly all of them in the same stroke — waiving the duties under sections 112 and 113 and most sanctions on foreign persons.
Why the Waiver Matters
The stakes were enormous. Hitting India’s goods with an extra 100 percent tariff would have rattled global supply chains and raised prices for American consumers just weeks before the November midterms. India, which has sharply increased purchases of discounted Russian crude, would have been among the hardest hit — even as the two countries edge closer to finalizing a long-negotiated trade framework.
By waiving the penalties, Trump avoided a tariff clash with three of the world’s biggest energy players at once: India, China, and Turkey, which together account for the large majority of Russia’s international energy trade. The waivers remain open-ended, giving Washington flexibility to reimpose them if circumstances change.
A Diesel Deal and a Diplomatic Tour
The waiver arrived alongside a tangible energy win. Trump announced a diesel supply agreement with Russia under which Moscow would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and one million tonnes thereafter — a direct move to keep American fuel prices in check.
The timing is diplomatic too. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Samarkand, Mumbai, and Jamnagar from October 17 to 22 for talks with Indian leaders, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar — a visit now freed from the shadow of an imminent tariff fight.
Leverage Kept in Reserve
Critics in Congress had urged Trump to implement the law in full by the deadline, arguing any waiver should be narrow and time-limited. Trump chose otherwise: the order hands the waiver authority to the Secretary of State and directs the U.S. Trade Representative to keep monitoring Russian energy purchases and report back on anything warranting further action.
The message is classic Trump dealmaking — maximum leverage without the self-inflicted wound. The tariff hammer still hangs in the air, but American businesses, allied economies, and fuel prices all get breathing room. For a president campaigning on economic strength weeks before the midterms, that is a win worth taking.
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